Energy Reports (Dec 2023)
An efficient Bayesian modelling of extreme winds in the favour of energy generation in Pakistan
Abstract
Daily and annual maximum wind speed quantiles can be estimated using extreme value theory for any metrological site of interest. These estimates are of vast importance for modelling and predicting maximum wind speed. This paper develops an efficient modelling paradigm of extreme winds by analysing daily and annual maximum wind speed data via frequentist and Bayesian methodologies. For this purpose, the generalized extreme value (GEV) model is used for yearly maxima, and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is used for daily exceedance over a high threshold. In frequentist inference, the parameters of both models are estimated using the maximum likelihood and linear moments method. In contrast, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure with the Metropolis–Hasting algorithm is used. In addition, the informative priors for both models are constructed empirically using historical records of wind speed data from five other weather stations of Pakistan and one belonging to India. The results show that the Bayesian modelling provides apparent benefits in terms of improved accuracy in the estimation of the parameters as well as return levels of both distributions. Furthermore, the Bayesian analysis expresses that posterior inference might be affected by the choice of priors used to formulate the informative priors. Overall, based on assessment measures, the GPD fitted through Bayesian informative priors provides an efficient estimation strategy in terms of precision than other frameworks when uncertainty in parameters and return levels are taken into account. Our methodology can be implemented easily to other regions by considering the prior information from the border area stations of other countries (e.g., China, Afghanistan, India, and Iran). Moreover, the return level estimates of the GPD based on informative Bayesian priors are very beneficial in policymaking and wind energy generation engineering for the Thatta region of the country.
