Fire Weather Assessment of Future Changes in Fire Weather Conditions in the Attica Region

Abstract

Under the framework of the European project “FirEUrisk”, the present work aimed to spatially assess the climate change signal of fire weather danger in the Attica region at a high resolution of 5 km. For this purpose, a methodology was applied to investigate the projected changes in fire weather conditions under two emission scenarios and two future periods. The fire weather assessment was based on the fire weather index system and other related indices. The calculated indices were derived from high-resolution validated simulations. Large increases in FWI90 were observed during all periods and under both emission scenarios, mainly in the eastern parts. It is estimated that the northeastern parts will encounter more than 70 days of extreme fire weather, which corresponds to a future change of an increase of more than 45 days compared to the historical period. A change of more than 50% in the ISI will be observed in almost the entire region in the near future under RCP4.5, while this change is restricted mostly to the eastern Attica region under RCP8.5 in both periods.

Keywords

• WRF
• fire weather index
• initial spread index
• RCP4.5
• RCP8.5
• climate change