Analysis of the responses of surface water resources to climate change in arid and semi-arid area

Abstract

About 70% of water withdrawals in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) are used for irrigation, and deeply explanation of the effects of climate change on runoff in the YRB provides a guarantee for agricultural production. Analysis and prediction of climate change were implemented according to the meteorological and hydrological data from 1967 to 2016, and the responses of the catchments of the six hydrological stations on the Yellow River to the different combinations of precipitation and temperature change conditions were explored adopting the Budyko framework, then the results based on the climate scenario simulation and climate elasticity were compared. Our results revealed that the precipitation in the YRB indicated a downward trend (p>0.05) while the temperature showed a upward trend (p<0.01), both which were predicted to climb in the future; the sensitivities of upstream, midstream and downstream runoff to climate change were gradually increased and the catchment characteristics acted a decisive role in determining sensitivities rather than climatic factors, generally, the runoff of different catchments increased by 17.1–30.2% with only 10% increase in precipitation and decreased by 4.2%-12.4% with only 1℃ increase in temperature; compared to the climate elasticity, the climate scenario simulation tend to be more accurate as it captured the changes in sensitivities when climate change. The results of this study provide a foundation for the regional development and utilization of water resources in the YRB under the influences of climate change.

Keywords

• Budyko framework
• Runoff
• Future prediction