Effects of ENSO on hydrological process and hydropower across the Lancang‐Mekong River Basin

Abstract

Abstract Rapid growth in energy demand and accompanying hydropower development has been observed in the Lancang‐Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in the last two decades. However, climate‐induced variations in water resources have brought uncertainties and challenges to energy security across the LMRB, especially for the hydropower sector. In this study, we propose a multiscale approach by linking two spatially distributed models to simulate and evaluate the effects of climatic drivers both on the water resources and hydropower generations in the LMRB. Specifically, we evaluate the effects of midterm large‐scale climatic drivers (i.e., ENSO) on the local hydrometeorological process and energy production. During ENSO events, the midstream to downstream LMRB is more impacted than the upstream LMRB, leading to hydroelectricity anomalies in the LMRB varying within a range of ±11,000 GWh. However, basin‐wide drought conditions caused by El Niño events in the LMRB do not always result in a reduction in hydropower generation. The proposed approach provides a methodological basis for characterizing power system responses to climatic drivers, potentially informing the future energy strategy and infrastructure development in the LMRB.

Keywords

• ENSO effects
• hydrological conditions
• hydropower performance
• Lancang‐Mekong River Basin