Predictive Modeling of the Hydrate Formation Temperature in Highly Pressurized Natural Gas Pipelines

Abstract

In this study, we aim to develop advanced machine learning regression models for the prediction of hydrate temperature based on the chemical composition of sweet gas mixtures. Data were collected in accordance with the BOTAS Gas Network Code specifications, approved by the Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA), and generated using DNV GasVLe v3.10 software, which predicts the phase behavior and properties of hydrocarbon-based mixtures under various pressure and temperature conditions. We employed linear regression, decision tree regression, random forest regression, generalized additive models, and artificial neural networks to create prediction models for hydrate formation temperature (HFT). The performance of these models was evaluated using the hold-out cross-validation technique to ensure unbiased results. This study demonstrates the efficacy of ensemble learning methods, particularly random forest with an R2 and Adj. R2 of 0.998, for predicting hydrate formation conditions, thereby enhancing the safety and efficiency of gas transport and processing. This research illustrates the potential of machine learning techniques in advancing the predictive accuracy for hydrate formations in natural gas pipelines and suggests avenues for future optimizations through hybrid modeling approaches.

Keywords

• machine learning
• hydrate formation
• methane
• natural gas
• supervised