Using System Dynamics Modelling to visualize the effects of resource management and policy interventions on biodiversity at a regional scale

Abstract

A methodology and a System Dynamics Model is constructed, using published data from the IUCN Red List Index database, that can be used to quantify the biodiversity status. The methodology is implemented for the Nestos River catchment in Greece. It is intended to help the authorities run scenarios of different interventions, addressing the specific problems and threats to the local ecosystem that each community might be facing. The methodology enables them to see and quantify biodiversity improvements as a result of these interventions. It compares and contrasts four specific threats to the ecosystem, identified from stakeholder consultation workshops, namely solid waste, agriculture, domestic wastewater and dams and water management/use. The effects of each one of the interventions to the species in the region and to the modified Red List Index overall are presented and compared, showcasing the dams as the most deleterious threat to the local ecosystem. Finally, an easy to use interface is developed and introduced to better connect the stakeholders with the scientific analysis and facilitate informed decision-making that could lead to smarter policy implementation. This would result insetting priorities for interventions and investments concerning improvement of the ecological status and biodiversity.

Keywords

• Biodiversity
• Red List Index
• System Dynamics Model
• Policy Co-creation
• SDG15