Predicting the potential distribution in China of Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) under current and future climate conditions

Abstract

Abstract Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) is an important forest pest that has caused serious damage in America and Vietnam. In 2014, it attacked forests of Acer trialatum in the Yunnan province of China, creating concern in China’s Forestry Bureau. We used the CLIMEX model to predict and compare the potential distribution for E. fornicates in China under current (1981–2010) and projected climate conditions (2011–2040) using one scenario (RCP8.5) and one global climate model (GCM), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. Under both current and future climate conditions, the model predicted E. fornicates to be mainly distributed in the south of China. Comparing distributions under both climate conditions showed that the area of potential distribution was projected to increase (mainly because of an increase in favourable habitat) and shift to the north. Our results help clarify the potential effect of climate change on the range of this forest pest and provide a reference and guide to facilitate its control in China.