Probability of Benefits in Asphalt Mixtures by Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

In inflationary economies, as is the case of Argentina, the development of rigid budgets forvarious items of road projects, including the provision of hot asphalt mix, creates a degree ofuncertainty regarding the expected benefit, given the existence of a logical term from quotationto effective provision.The Monte Carlo simulation method, offers a choice of analysis that allows to obtain the probabilitydistribution of benefit, depending on the inclusion of probability distributions for the increasedcosts of resources, and set the expected confidence intervals for different thresholds of thisvariable, resulting in a minor degree of uncertainty. But the use of this method by road engineersis not commonly, because it is considered more related to the area of the economics sciences.This paper addresses the issue raised, trying to bring to road engineer a particular view ofthe use of Monte Carlo simulation, including the generation of a sheet subjected to simulationcalculation in an application example, and an analysis for their results.

Keywords

• ingeniería vial
• cotización
• mezcla asfáltica
• simulación Monte Carlo