Energies (Jan 2018)
Daily Peak Load Forecasting Based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise and Support Vector Machine Optimized by Modified Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm
Abstract
Daily peak load forecasting is an important part of power load forecasting. The accuracy of its prediction has great influence on the formulation of power generation plan, power grid dispatching, power grid operation and power supply reliability of power system. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct a suitable model to realize the accurate prediction of the daily peak load. A novel daily peak load forecasting model, CEEMDAN-MGWO-SVM (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise and Support Vector Machine Optimized by Modified Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm), is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the model uses the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) algorithm to decompose the daily peak load sequence into multiple sub sequences. Then, the model of modified grey wolf optimization and support vector machine (MGWO-SVM) is adopted to forecast the sub sequences. Finally, the forecasting sequence is reconstructed and the forecasting result is obtained. Using CEEMDAN can realize noise reduction for non-stationary daily peak load sequence, which makes the daily peak load sequence more regular. The model adopts the grey wolf optimization algorithm improved by introducing the population dynamic evolution operator and the nonlinear convergence factor to enhance the global search ability and avoid falling into the local optimum, which can better optimize the parameters of the SVM algorithm for improving the forecasting accuracy of daily peak load. In this paper, three cases are used to test the forecasting accuracy of the CEEMDAN-MGWO-SVM model. We choose the models EEMD-MGWO-SVM (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Support Vector Machine Optimized by Modified Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm), MGWO-SVM (Support Vector Machine Optimized by Modified Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm), GWO-SVM (Support Vector Machine Optimized by Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm), SVM (Support Vector Machine) and BP neural network to compare with the CEEMDAN-MGWO-SVM model and analyze the forecasting results of the same sample data. The experimental results fully demonstrate the reliability and effectiveness of the CEEMDAN-MGWO-SVM model proposed in this paper for daily peak load forecasting, which shows the strong generalization ability and robustness of the model.
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