Reliability Analysis of High-Pressure Tunnel System Under Multiple Failure Modes Based on Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm–Kriging–Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Abstract

It is often difficult for a structural safety design method based on deterministic analysis to fully and reasonably reflect the randomness of mechanical parameters, while the traditional reliability analysis method has a large calculation cost and low accuracy. In this paper, based on the seepage–stress coupling numerical model, the random variables affecting the reliability of the collaborative bearing of surrounding rock and lining structures are successfully identified. Then, the improved sparrow search algorithm (ISSA) is used to optimize the hyper-parameters of the Kriging surrogate model, in order to improve the computational efficiency and accuracy of the reliability analysis model. Finally, the ISSA-Kriging-MCS model is used to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the surrounding rock-reinforced concrete lining structure under multiple failure modes, and the sensitivity of each random variable is discussed in depth. The results show that the high-pressure tunnel structure has high safety and reliability. The reliability indexes of each failure mode decrease with the increase in the coefficient of variation (COV) of random variables. In addition, the same random variable also exhibits varying degrees of influence in different failure modes.

Keywords

• high-pressure tunnel
• ISSA-Kriging-MCS model
• reliability analysis
• multiple failure modes
• sensitivity analysis