Electricity Consumption Model for Energy Systems of Ukraine at Various Levels of Locality

Abstract

The article is dedicated to the study of random parameters describing the processes of electric energy consumption in power systems of different levels of localization. The objective of this research is to construct the mathematical model that adequately describes consumption modes as random processes. As experimental studies, we statistically processed the data on energy consumption of several settlements, regional and integrated energy systems of Ukraine for 2015-2017. The results obtained were used as the base for developing and testing the mathematical models. To achieve this goal, representations of the model parameters as random variables were used, and the results of simulation were compared with experimental data. The scatter of drift values is generally greater than volatility. When a group of consumers is combined or the size of the local power system increased, the spread of parameters expectedly decreases. The most significant result of the research is establishment of probability distribution laws for the parameters of the process of electric energy consumption. For the indicator of volatility, it can be considered as Gaussian. The drift index is well described by the Weibull distribution. We estimated the size of a random sampling of experimental data needed to obtain statistically stable results. Significance of the obtained results consists in establishing the degree of consistency of the actual data and random implementations of the simulation model, which proves adequacy of the proposed mathematical model and makes it possible to assess the real uncertainty of the process of balancing the power system.

Keywords

• local energy system
• a
• mathematical modeling