Prospective analysis of Simantri sustainability: A probability approach

Abstract

The Simantri program is a long-term regional initiative aimed at the welfare of Bali's farmers as well as self-sufficiency in food, feed, organic fertilizer, energy, and biogas. This study aims to determine the probability scenario and the scenario's sensitivity driving the Simantri program's sustainability. This study was conducted within the Tabanan Regency. The data for this purpose were gathered through interviews with Simantri farmers and 115 respondents as assistants using a structured questionnaire and Focus Group Discussions (FGD) with 19 funding experts or stakeholder groups. The SMIC-Prob Expert model analyzed data from the FGD results compared to or considered alongside the questionnaire results. The results of the analysis indicate that scenario combination "1101" (cattle, economic side, and commercial) has the highest probability, with a probability of 0.138. According to the elasticity-based sensitivity analysis, the cattle and commercial scenario is the "primary mover" or primary driver of the system. With cattle elasticity of 1.677 and a commercial elasticity of 1.344, the Simantri program's sustainability largely depends on these two scenarios. Sustainability recommendations for the Simantri program is "prime over”.

Keywords

• probability of scenarios
• simatri program
• smic-prob analysis