Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival in gastric signet ring cell carcinoma patients treated with radiotherapy

Abstract

Abstract There is no effective clinical prediction model to predict the prognosis of gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (GSRC) patients treated with radiotherapy. This study retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 20–80-year-old patients diagnosed with GSRC between 2004 and 2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Using Cox regression analyses revealed independent prognostic factors, and a nomogram was constructed. The C-index, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of the nomogram were greater than those of the TNM staging system for predicting OS, indicating that the nomogram predicted prognosis with greater accuracy. The area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.725, 0.753 and 0.745 for the training group; 0.725, 0.763 and 0.752 for the internal validation group; and 0.795, 0.764 and 0.765 for the external validation group, respectively. Calibration plots demonstrated high agreement between the nomogram’s prediction and the actual observations. The risk stratification system was able to accurately stratify patients who underwent radiotherapy for GSRC into high- and low-risk subgroups, with significant differences in prognosis. The Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis according to different treatments indicated that surgery combined with chemoradiotherapy is a more effective treatment strategy for improving OS in for GSRC patients. The nomogram is sufficiently accurate to predict the prognostic factors of GSRC receiving radiotherapy, allowing for clinicians to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS.

Keywords

• Gastric signet ring cell carcinoma
• Radiotherapy
• Nomogram
• Overall survival
• K‒M