Understanding Soaring Coronavirus Cases and the Effect of Contagion Policies in the UK

Abstract

The number of new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections experienced an abrupt increase during the last quarter of 2020 in almost every European country. The phenomenological explanation offered was a new mutation of the virus, first identified in the UK. We use publicly available data in combination with a time-delayed controlled SIR model, which captures the effects of preventive measures on the spreading of the virus. We are able to reproduce the waves of infection occurred in the UK with a unique transmission rate, suggesting that the new SARS-CoV-2 variant is as transmissible as previous strains. Our findings indicate that the sudden surge in cases was, in fact, related to the relaxation of preventive measures and social awareness. We also simulate the combined effects of restrictions and vaccination campaigns in 2021, demonstrating that lockdown policies are not fully effective to flatten the curve. For effective mitigation, it is critical that the public keeps on high alert until vaccination reaches a critical threshold.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• SIR