Quantitative modeling of monkeypox viral transmission using Caputo fractional variational iteration method

Abstract

The present work investigates a novel time-fractional model for monkeypox using the Caputo fractional operator, with a focus on vaccinated, quarantined, and hospitalized individuals. Utilizing the fractional variational iteration method, we derived numerical outcomes demonstrating the convergence and positivity of the solutions, which align with empirical data. The results confirm the reliability and effectiveness of fractional derivatives in capturing memory effects inherent to disease progression. Our findings reveal that the Caputo fractional variational approach provides a superior framework for modeling complex dynamics of monkeypox transmission across human and rodent populations. This leads to a more comprehensive understanding of the potential of fractional calculus in epidemiological modeling, offering robust predictions for managing outbreaks and informing public health interventions.

Keywords

• Analysis of convergence
• Caputo fractional derivative
• Epidemiology
• Monkeypox virus
• Variational iteration method