Uncertainty Study of Empty Fruit Bunches-based Bioethanol Supply Chain

Abstract

Throughout the years, researchers and key stakeholders of the industries have been pursuing sustainable development in industries. It can be in the form of green processing whereby it aims to minimize the environmental emissions, energy consumption and replace the usage of chemicals as raw materials. Many industry players substitute the usage of chemicals for greener raw material in support of the shift towards green processing. One of the processes that has adapted to this shift is the palm biomass-derived ethanol production. However, limited works had incorporated supply chain uncertainties into the techno-economic studies of bioethanol production. Therefore, this paper aims to evaluate the impact of biomass supply chain uncertainties on the techno-economic feasibility of palm-biomass derived bio-ethanol production. To achieve this, a stochastic mathematical model, known as Monte Carlo simulation is developed. This model can generate a financial probability curve that reflects on the various supply chain uncertainties. This probability curve can provide users and investors a bird’s eye view of the potential losses induced by the uncertainties. A Sarawak case study is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the developed model that encompasses five supply chain uncertainties, such as bioethanol demand, bioethanol price, EFB price, EFB availability and transportation fuel price.