Projection of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan new area of Hebei Province, China

Abstract

Abstract It is of great importance to explore the future spatiotemporal dynamics of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan New Area, an area of great strategic significance under construction in China. Based on 6.25 km high-resolution downscaling projection data under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Mann–Kendall trend and linear trend were analyzed, and then stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and time-varying GEV methods were determined to calculate the extremes of four key meteorological hazard factors with return periods of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years during the projection period 1991–2050. Results show that extremes of annual maximum daily precipitation and annual maximum amount of consecutive precipitation under two climate scenarios will not increase too much. Extremes of annual maximum temperature will increase by above 1.5 °C under RCP4.5 scenario in most grids and above 1.9 °C under RCP8.5 scenario. Extremes of annual longest consecutive high-temperature days will increase by above 0.9d under RCP4.5 scenario and above 1.6d under RCP8.5 scenario. On the whole, the hazard of flood disaster will hardly show any change up to 2050, but there will be relatively higher flood hazard in Xiongxian county and its adjacent region. All regions in Xiongan New Area will face high hazard of high-temperature disaster.