Monthly-scale extended predictions using the atmospheric model coupled with a slab ocean

Abstract

Given the good persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) due to the slow-varying nature of the ocean, an atmospheric model coupled with a slab ocean model (SOM) instead of a 3-D dynamical ocean model is designed as an efficient approach for extended-range predictions. The prediction experiments from July to December 2020 are performed based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the SOM (WRF-SOM) with the initial and boundary conditions same as the WRF coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (WRF-ROMS). The WRF-SOM is verified to have better performance of SSTs in the extended-range predictions than WRF-ROMS since it avoids the complicated model biases from the ocean dynamics and seabed topography when extended-range predictions are made using a 3-D dynamical ocean model. The improvement of SSTs can lead to the remarkable impact on the response of the atmosphere from the surface to the upper layer. Taking typhoon as an example of extreme events, the WRF-SOM can obtain comparable intensity predictions and slightly improved track predictions due to the improved SSTs in the initialized WRF-SOM system. Overall, the WRF-SOM can ensure the stability of extended-range prediction and reduce the demand for computing resources by roughly 50 %.