Climate Change Impacts on Shallow Landslide Events and on the Performance of the Regional Shallow Landslide Early Warning System of Piemonte (Northwestern Italy)

Abstract

Shallow landslides are one of the most dangerous gravitational phenomena. They are responsible for more than 50% of causalities due to landslides in northwestern Italy in the last century. The aim of the research study presented here is focused on understanding if and how climate change influences the occurrence and behavior of this landslide type. A total of 120 widespread shallow landslide events have been analyzed from 1960 to 2019, taking into account the spatial and time distribution in association with related rainfall historical data elaborated by the Optimal Interpolation (OI) model. Results underline that shallow landslide events’ number (aggregated per five-year intervals) is characterized by a weak trend consisting of a slight increase in the Alps and a more pronounced decrease in the hilly and Apennines environments. In addition, the trend of the annual accumulated rainfall average shows a weak drop in the winter season of about 9 mm in ten years. Moreover, the rainy days have generally decreased over the hills and Apennines, while in the Alps, only in the summer season, with a decreasing rate of about 1.5 days every ten years. The rainfall trends are in accordance with those of shallow landslide events, pointing out the close and direct dependence of the shallow landslide events on the rainfall regime variations. The results obtained were also used to validate the robustness of the performance of the Regional Shallow Landslide Early Warning System adopted in Piemonte over the investigated period, confirming the effectiveness of the trigger thresholds used for the entire historical series and for different geographical areas.

Keywords

• landslide occurrence seasonality
• rainfall regime variations
• triggering thresholds
• global warming
• statistical trends