Clinical Epidemiology (Jul 2020)
Trend Dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission in 16 Cities of Hubei Province, China
Abstract
Muhammad Fawad,1,2 Sumaira Mubarik,3 Saima Shakil Malik,4 Yangyang Hao,2 Chuanhua Yu,3 Jingli Ren1 1Henan Academy of Big Data, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Mathematics and Statistics, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430071, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Zoology, University of Gujrat, Gujrat 50700, PakistanCorrespondence: Jingli RenHenan Academy of Big Data, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86-13653827917Email [email protected]: A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detected by researchers from a patient in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, and broke out in January 2020. Then, the pandemic was detected in countries around the world. Therefore, precise estimates of its current and future trends are highly required for future policy implications.Methods: We retrieved data from the Health Commission of Hubei, China. Logistic-S curve model was used to estimate the current and future trends of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases among 16 cities of Hubei, China from Jan-11 to Feb-24, 2020.Results: Out of 64,287 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hubei, higher percentage of cases were in Wuhan and Xiaogan. The highest death percentage was found in Wuhan and Qianjiang. A significant percentage of cures were found in Enshi Prefecture and Huanggang, while Wuhan showed the lowest percentage of cures. Rising trends in infected cases were observed throughout the study period, particularly in Wuhan, and a higher trend was observed after 12-Feb. Gradual decline trend of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed during Feb-25 to Mar-15 in Hubei Province. Future forecast showed that the average number of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases might be decreased or stable in Hubei in the coming 20 days.Conclusion: The public must take precautionary measures in order to control and prevent disease spread and avoid extra travelling.Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, death, trends, cities, Wuhan, China
