Pure contagion vs. financial interconnection in the subprime crisis context: Short- and long-term dynamics

Abstract

This paper examines the difference between pure contagion and financial interconnection by studying the U.S. and some American and Asian markets in the subprime crisis context. These markets are affected by the mortgage crisis, with data available from January 1, 2003 to December 30, 2011. The paper first identifies the turmoil period via the wavelet technique and adopts cointegration and Granger causality approaches by estimating vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM) models. Based on daily returns from stock market indices in five American countries (Mexico, Brazil, Canada, Argentina, and the U.S.) and eight Asian ones (Hong Kong, Japan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, and China), the results show eight cases of pure contagion and 10 cases of financial interconnection. In addition, there were high co-movements in the short term and low co-movements in the long term for financial interconnection cases. These findings have several implications for investors looking to diversify their portfolios internationally and for portfolio managers to expect and limit market risk. The results provide additional guidance to regulators and policymakers.

Keywords

• cointegration
• financial interconnection
• Granger causality
• pure contagion
• subprime crisis