Predictors of Death from Complicated Severe Acute Malnutrition in East Ethiopia: Survival Analysis

Abstract

Abdu Oumer,1 Leul Mesfin,1 Esubalew Tesfahun,2 Ahmed Ale3 1Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia; 2Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Debre Birhan, University, Debre Birhan, Ethiopia; 3School of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Science, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, EthiopiaCorrespondence: Abdu OumerDepartment of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, EthiopiaEmail [email protected]: Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is still the leading cause of global child morbidity and mortality, with a greater burden in sub-Saharan Africa. A facility-based treatment of SAM demands critical care for improved outcomes and survival of children. However, there is a need to understand predictors for time to death among SAM children for effective interventions.Objective: To assess the predictors of death from complicated severe acute malnutrition among admitted children treated in East Ethiopia.Methods: A 31-month retrospective cohort study was conducted among a total of 665 under-five children admitted with complicated SAM in Dilchora hospital, eastern Ethiopia. The data was extracted from the patient register and medical charts using the kobo tool. The life table, survival, and hazard curves were plotted. Kaplan–Meier with Log rank tests was used to estimate and compare the mean survival time. The bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of time to death. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals and p-values were reported.Results: A total of 665 full medical charts were reviewed with a total of 60 (9%; 95% CI: 6.8– 11.2%) deaths were observed, where most of the deaths occurred during the first two weeks of admission, while 74 (11%) and 449 (68%) were cured and recovered (stabilized and transferred to outpatient), respectively. Admitted children having good appetite (AHR=0.15; 95% CI: 0.64– 0.33), pneumonia (AHR=2.46, 95% CI: 1.436, 4.22), diarrhea (AHR=2.16, 95% CI: 1.16, 4.06), tuberculosis (AHR=2.86, 95% CI: 1.08, 7.63) and having a nasogastric tube inserted (AHR=2.33, 95% CI: 1.15, 4.72) were significant predictors of time to death among SAM children.Conclusion: There is unacceptably high under-five mortality due to SAM, which is predicted by co-morbidities (pneumonia, diarrhea, and tuberculosis), with medical complications and nasogastric tubes.Keywords: survival pattern, predictors, time to death, severe acute malnutrition, hospitals

Keywords

• survival pattern
• predictors time to death
• severe acute malnutrition
• hospitals