Sovremennye Tehnologii Upravleniâ (Apr 2016)
The methodology of comparative evaluation of ruble and foreign currency loans in the pre-crisis period
Abstract
In the article the author considers a problem of an optimal way of borrowing during the pre-crisis period (deciding between ruble and foreign currency borrowings). It is obvious that during the period of stable economic growth, when currency pair rate (for example, ruble - USA dollar) doesn't change significntly, the lower interest rate of foreign currency loans makes them a cheaper way of borrowing. But during a crisis an abrupt growth of currency pair rate can make foreign currency loan a more expensive way of borrowing (as compared to ruble loan). The author suggests a scenario-based method of decision making about an optimal way of borrowing during a pre-crisis period, which affords to calculate a threshold meaning of currency pair rate, after which a foreign currency loan becomes more expensive. Application of the method is illustrated on the example of a situation in a telecommunication sector in Russian Federation during currency crisis of 2014. A detailed analysis if the situation in the sector in the last pre-crisis year (2013) is provided. Structures of debt burdens of the leading companies (Vimpelcom, MTS and Megafon) are considered. Percent shares of currency loans, shares of borrowing types and according interest rates are provided. In the conclusion of the article some specific aspects of application of suggested method and potential ways of its improvement are considered.
