Global temporal patterns of pancreatic cancer and association with socioeconomic development

Abstract

Abstract Pancreatic cancer induces a substantial global burden. We examined its global incidence/mortality rates and their correlation with socioeconomic development (Human Development Index [HDI] and Gross Domestic Product [GDP] in 2000 as proxy measures). Data on age-standardized incidence/mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns in 1998–2007 were assessed for 39 countries according to gender. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of the incidence/mortality trends was evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis. The age-standardized incidence ranged between 0.8–8.9/100,000. When compared among countries, Brazil (AAPC = 10.4, 95%C.I. = 0.8,21) and France (AAPC = 4.7, 95%C.I. = 3.6,5.9) reported the highest incidence rise in men. The greatest increase in women was reported in Thailand (AAPC = 7, 95%C.I. = 2.1,12.1) and Ecuador (AAPC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 1.3,7.3). For mortality, the Philippines (APCC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 2,6.6) and Croatia (AAPC = 2, 95% C.I. = 0,3.9) reported the biggest increase among men. The Philippines (AAPC = 5.8, 95% C.I. 4.5,7.2) and Slovakia (AAPC = 3.1, 95% C.I. 0.9,5.3) showed the most prominent rise among women. Its incidence was positively correlated with HDI (men: r = 0.66; women: r = 0.70) and GDP (men: r = 0.29; women: r = 0.28, all p < 0.05), and similarly for mortality (men: r = 0.67; women: r = 0.72 [HDI]; men: r = 0.23; women: r = 0.28 [GDP]). In summary, the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer were rising in many countries, requiring regular surveillance.