Nutrition Journal (Jan 2018)

Predictors of overweight/obesity in a Brazilian cohort after 13 years of follow-up

  • Ludimila Garcia Souza,
  • Thiago Veiga Jardim,
  • Ana Carolina Rezende,
  • Ana Luiza Lima Sousa,
  • Humberto Graner Moreira,
  • Naiana Borges Perillo,
  • Samanta Garcia de Souza,
  • Weimar Kunz Sebba Barroso de Souza,
  • Ymara Cássia Luciana Araújo,
  • Maria do Rosário Gondim Peixoto,
  • Paulo César Brandão Veiga Jardim

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12937-018-0320-7
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 17, no. 1
pp. 1 – 9

Abstract

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Abstract Background Obesity is a chronic complex disease with an increasing prevalence around the world. Prospective studies in adult cohorts are needed to provide information about predictors of new-onset overweight/obesity on population-based levels. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with the risk of an adult individual become overweight/obese after 13 years of follow-up. Methods Second phase of an observational population-based prospective cohort study in a small town in the Midwest region of Brazil. A representative sample of the adult population (≥18 years) was assessed in 2002 (phase 1). Anthropometric, sociodemographic, dietary intake and lifestyle data were collected. After 13 years of follow-up (2015), the same variables were re-evaluated (phase 2). New-onset overweight/obesity was the outcome variable. Results A total of 685 subjects were included with a mean age in phase 1 of 42.7 ± 13.8 years and 56.1 ± 13.8 years in phase 2, the mean follow-up time was 13.2 years and female sex counted for 66.3% of the sample. Total weight gain was 5.9 ± 10.2 Kg, body mass index increased 2.6 ± 3.8 Kg/m2 and waist circumference (WC) values increased 8.0 ± 10.5 cm. The prevalence of overweight/obesity went from 49.1% in phase 1 to 69.8% in phase 2 (p < 0.001). The factors associated with a decreased risk of new-onset overweight/obesity were ages between 50 and 64 (RR 0.40; CI 0.24–0.67 – p = 0.001) and ≥65 years (RR 0.15; CI 0.06–0.35 - p < 0.001), being part of the second quartile of fat consumption (RR 0.59; CI 0.35–0.97 – p = 0.041), no alcohol consumption (RR 0.59; CI 0.37–0.93 – p = 0.024) and smoking (RR 0.58; CI 0.39–0.86 – p = 0,007) in phase 1. Conclusions We identified in thirteen years of follow-up that older ages, a moderate fat consumption compared to low consumption, no alcohol consumption and smoking habit were related to a decreased risk of new-onset overweight/obesity. Obesity prevention actions must focus on subjects at younger ages and include policies to reduce alcohol consumption.

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