Implementation of the TRIGRS model with reliability analysis for hazard assessment of shallow rainfall-triggered landslides

Abstract

Landslides triggered by rainfall infiltration are common in tropical regions. Slope failures represent one of the most common causes of human and economic losses around the world. This study presents a methodology for hazard assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall. The implemented methodology uses the physical based model - TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Gridbased Slope-Stability), as well as a reliability analysis using the FOSM probabilistic method (First Order Second Moment), which allow to incorporate the uncertainty of strength parameters of the soil (cohesion and friction) and the thickness of the failure surface, these soil properties present great variability associated with the geological and geomorphological conditions for each zone. Additionally, the used methodology allows an adequate analysis of the effect of the rainfall infiltration process on the soil instability since it considers both, the rainfall characteristics (intensity-duration), as well as the hydraulic conductivity and the strength parameters of the soil. The contrast of the results obtained by the FOSM compared to the deterministic results, highlights the importance of considering the uncertainty within the stability analysis. The procedure and obtained results intend to show a useful tool for land use plans, that allows a progressive and sustainable socio-economic development of the areas which can be susceptible to landslides triggered by rainfall infiltration.

Keywords

• Physical based model
• transient rainfall infiltration
• slope stability analysis
• FOSM probabilistic Method