Prediction of Farmers’ Income in Hebei Province Based on the Fractional Grey Model (1,1)

Abstract

The problem of increasing farmers’ income has been a hot issue of social concern. Understanding the farmers’ income and the overall development trend is conducive to the rational layout of the social economy and promotes the steady development of a well-off society. Based on this, the paper selects the per capita disposable income (PCDI) of farmers’ households from 2012 to 2019 in 11 cities of Hebei Province as the research object and applies the fractional grey model (FGM (1,1)) to predict farmers’ income from 2020 to 2024. The results show that the farmers’ income will increase in the next five years. However, the growth rate of farmers’ income is slow in the areas with a large base of farmers’ income and strong in the areas with a small base of farmers’ income. The area with the highest trend in the growth rate of farmers’ income is Zhangjiakou and the lowest place is Handan. Only Shijiazhuang’s income growth rate is on the rise. Finally, suggestions are given to promote farmers’ income in Hebei Province.