Development of an Optimization-Based Budget Allocation Model for Seismic Strengthening Based on Seismic Risk Assessment

Abstract

This study presents a technology used for the prediction of economic losses to facilities in a given area during an earthquake, thereby enabling the efficient application of performance-based maintenance and seismic strengthening. We also propose an algorithm for the establishment of a reinforcement plan that minimizes earthquake-induced economic losses within a constrained budget. The algorithm incorporates fragility functions from prior research and utilizes an optimization technique for budget allocation, leveraging the target damage ratio concept and constrained optimization. Based on the fragility curve, the probability of occurrence for each damage state for a specific PGA value and the damage rate for each damage state are calculated. From these values, the expected damage ratio (EDR) is estimated. An optimization-based budget allocation algorithm is developed to find the elements that would result in the lowest damage rate for a limited cost. To validate the applicability of the model, we created a hypothetical city with a 30 km × 30 km area containing bridges, embankments, and buildings. The estimated pre- and post-reinforcement damage was assessed in two earthquake scenarios, allowing us to test the effectiveness of the optimization-based budget allocation model in reducing damage. These results suggest that the proposed model offers a viable strategy for efficient seismic strengthening within budgetary constraints.

Keywords

• economic losses
• earthquake
• reinforcement plan
• optimization
• budget allocation model