Modelling the factors influencing carbon efficiency of consumer choice to promote energy-efficient vehicles

Abstract

This study investigates the main factors influencing carbon emissions from Four Wheel Passenger Vehicles (FWPVs) in Sri Lanka, an emerging economy where the transport sector contributes 12 % of total emissions. Pioneering a new methodology, we integrate System Dynamics (SD) modeling and decomposition analysis to comprehensively map the factors affecting fuel efficiency for the first time in Sri Lanka. Employing the additive Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI I), we analyze a comprehensive time series dataset covering all petrol, diesel, and electric-powered FWPVs registered between 2015 and 2019. Our study delves into significant drivers of CO2 emissions, including population dynamics, vehicle ownership trends, annual travel distances, fuel types, engine capacities, and technological advancements. Additionally, we quantify the impact of fiscal policies on FWPV emissions, revealing a surge in emissions in 2018 and 2019 driven by consumer preferences for high-capacity vehicles. Our findings offer critical insights for crafting effective policies to promote energy-efficient vehicles and mitigate carbon emissions in the transport sector, emphasizing the importance of targeted fiscal measures. By imposing taxes on high-capacity vehicles and incentivizing the adoption of low-emission options through tax variations and renewable energy incentives, policymakers can influence consumer behavior and drive significant emission reductions. Our study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring and evaluation of fiscal policies to refine existing measures and accelerate the transition towards a sustainable, low-carbon transportation sector in Sri Lanka.

Keywords

• System dynamics
• Decomposition analysis
• Energy efficiency modelling
• New vehicle registrations
• E-mobility policies