Historical Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Shoreline Change at the Nile Delta Using RS Data and GIS with the DSAS Tool

Abstract

Coastal areas are increasingly endangered by climate change and associated sea level rise, which could have serious consequences, such as shoreline erosion and coastal city submergence. The current study aims to conduct a historical trend analysis (HTA) and predict the shoreline changes of the Nile Delta coasts. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software, with the GIS environment, is used for monitoring the shoreline changes using a number of statistical methods (SCE, NSM, EPR, WLR and LRR). Satellite images from 1974 to 2022 were collected and geometrically corrected using supervised classification to detect the shoreline change of the Nile Delta. The GIS was used for detecting and monitoring changes in the shoreline, as well as forecasting future changes in the shoreline for the next 10 and 20 years (2033–2043). The critical sections of the Nile Delta were identified, and a time series analysis of shoreline changes was conducted. For each section, linear equations were established to predict probable changes in the shoreline. Between 1974 and 2022, the shoreline of the Nile Delta moved inland in different directions due to coastal erosion, and predictions indicate that this erosion will continue until both 2033 and 2043, particularly affecting the Rosetta and Damietta sections. The erosion rate ranged between 30–60 and 10–25 m/year at Rosetta and Damietta, respectively, but at Manzala, it ranged between 8–15 m/year. Continued erosion of the Nile Delta shoreline could have severe consequences that could affect the inhabitants, economy, buildings, roads, railways, and ports. These areas need an integrated coastal management strategy which incorporates increasing consciousness, urban development, and the implementation of rules and adaptation plans. The results of the current study and forecasting the shoreline change could help in protecting such areas.

Keywords

• historical trend analysis
• shoreline
• Nile Delta
• climate change
• SLR
• DSAS