A Combined Method for Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering the Characteristics of Components of Seasonal and Trend Decomposition Using Local Regression

Abstract

In response to the complexity and high volatility of original load data affecting the accuracy of load forecasting, a combined method for short-term load forecasting considering the characteristics of components of seasonal and trend decomposition using local regression (STL) is proposed. The original load data are decomposed into a trend component, seasonal component, and residual component using STL. Then, considering the characteristics of each component, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, a convolutional neural network (CNN), and Gaussian process regression (GPR) are used to predict the trend component, seasonal component, and residual component, respectively. The final outcome of the load forecasting is obtained by summing the forecasted results of each individual component. A specific case study is conducted to compare the proposed combined method with LSTM, CNN, GPR, STL-LSTM, STL-CNN, and STL-GPR prediction methods. Through comparison, the proposed combined method exhibits lower errors and higher accuracy, demonstrating the effectiveness of this method.

Keywords

• short-term load forecasting
• seasonal and trend decomposition using local regression
• long and short-term memory network
• convolutional neural network
• Gaussian process regression