The <i>M</i>_w&thinsp;7.5 Tadine (Maré, Loyalty Islands) earthquake and related tsunami of 5 December 2018: seismotectonic context and numerical modeling

Abstract

On 5 December 2018, a magnitude Mw 7.5 earthquake occurred southeast of Maré, an island of the Loyalty Islands archipelago, New Caledonia. This earthquake is located at the junction between the plunging Loyalty Ridge and the southern part of the Vanuatu Arc, in a tectonically complex and very active area regularly subjected to strong seismic crises and earthquakes higher than magnitude 7 and up to 8. Widely felt in New Caledonia, it was immediately followed by a tsunami warning, confirmed shortly after by a first wave arrival at the Loyalty Islands tide gauges (Maré and Lifou), and then along the east coast of Grande Terre of New Caledonia and in several islands of the Vanuatu Archipelago. Two solutions of the seafloor initial deformation are considered for tsunami generation modeling, one using a non-uniform finite-source model from USGS and the other being a uniform slip model built from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) solution, with the geological knowledge of the region and empirical laws establishing relationships between the moment magnitude and the fault plane geometry. Both tsunami generation and propagation are simulated using the Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM), an open-source modeling code solving the shallow-water equations on an unstructured grid allowing refinement in many critical areas. The results of numerical simulations are compared to tide gauge records, field observations and testimonials from 2018. Careful inspection of wave amplitude and wave energy maps for the two simulated scenarios shows clearly that the heterogeneous deformation model is inappropriate, while it raises the importance of the fault plane geometry and azimuth for tsunami amplitude and directivity. The arrival times, wave amplitude and polarities obtained with the uniform slip model are globally coherent, especially in far-field locations (Hienghène, Poindimié and Port Vila). Due to interactions between the tsunami waves and the numerous bathymetric structures like the Loyalty and Norfolk ridges in the neighborhood of the source, the tsunami propagating toward the south of Grande Terre and the Isle of Pines is captured by these structures acting like waveguides, allowing it to propagate to the north-northwest, especially in the Loyalty Islands and along the east coast of Grande Terre. A similar observation results from the propagation in the Vanuatu islands, from Aneityum to Efate.