Mobility restrictions in response to local epidemic outbreaks in rock-paper-scissors models

Abstract

We study a three-species cyclic model whose organisms are vulnerable to contamination with an infectious disease which propagates person-to-person. We consider that individuals of one species perform a self-preservation strategy by reducing the mobility rate to minimise infection risk whenever an epidemic outbreak reaches the neighbourhood. Running stochastic simulations, we quantify the changes in spatial patterns induced by unevenness in the cyclic game introduced by the mobility restriction strategy of organisms of one out of the species. Our findings show that variations in disease virulence impact the benefits of dispersal limitation reaction, with the relative reduction of the organisms’ infection risk accentuating in surges of less contagious or deadlier diseases. The effectiveness of the mobility restriction tactic depends on the deceleration level and the fraction of infected neighbours which is considered too dangerous, thus triggering the defensive strategy. If each organism promptly reacts to the arrival of the first viral vectors in its surroundings with strict mobility reduction, contamination risk decreases significantly. Our conclusions may help biologists understand the impact of defensive strategies in ecosystems during an epidemic.

Keywords

• epidemic
• mobility restrictions
• simulations
• rock-paper-scissors
• ecology
• artificial intelligence