Modeling the Ecological-Socio-Economic System of the White Sea and its Watershed

Abstract

Purpose. The work is aimed at developing a cognitive model of the ecological-socio-economic system of the White Sea (Beloe more) and its watershed (called for short Belomor’e). Unlike the previously developed cognitive models for the region, the new model of the system has a hierarchical structure including five sub-models united by a common management system. The model is intended for obtaining prognostic qualitative assessments of the transformations ongoing in a complex system under various scenarios of nature management and climate change. The model makes it possible to determine different targets, which, in their turn, permit to assess the possibilities of improving the population living standards, the environment rational use and protection, and development of the White Sea region social sphere. These factors constitute an important foundation for achieving sustainable development of the region. The results can serve a basis for constructing a system of quantitative models required to develop the management decision support systems. Methods and Results. The cognitive model of the White Sea is considered to be a tool for synthesizing heterogeneous information about a complex ecological-socio-economic system. The conceptual modeling and the mathematical apparatus of continuous or probabilistic logic are applied. Unlike the traditional cognitive models, the new one implies the variables’ change in time over 100 years. This allows us to describe the relationship between the interaction agents, and to characterize the mechanisms of their mutual adaptation. The time step in the model is preset to be one year. Development of the cognitive models for the White Sea region was supported by the following information: geographic information systems, databases, integrated electronic and paper atlases of the White Sea and its watershed area, original 3D mathematical models of the sea thermohydrodynamics and ecosystem. The patterns of climate change, hydrological conditions and fishing (basic occupation of local population – the Pomors) were studied. At that, the models both for assessing the regional economy state and for forecasting its development are used. Conclusions. A new cognitive model of the White Sea region ecological-socio-economic system was created based on the hierarchical principle. The developed sub-models relate to various fields of knowledge: economy, demography, oceanography, soil and agrophysics. Dynamics of the model elements over 100 years was demonstrated. Besides, it was shown that with the quasi-cyclic climate fluctuations, the economic parameters change insignificantly, whereas they have a noticeable impact upon the population living standards and the White Sea ecosystem. The demonstrated features resulted from the climate change effects upon the White Sea ecosystem are manifested in the fluctuations of water temperature, phyto- and zooplankton biomass and fishing, but the changes in benthos are hardly noticeable. Dependence of the White Sea region population outflow upon the gross regional product size, availability of production facilities and water quality is shown. Water quality in the region increases, unfortunately, not due to the investments in water treatment, but because of the pollution decrease resulted from the population and production shrinkage.

Keywords

• environment
• population
• economy
• cognitive model
• forecasting
• climate
• white sea
• watershed