Impact of climate change in forest fire initiation in Las Tunas

Abstract

In recent decades, the area affected and the severity of forest fires have increased in many regions of the world. Without anticipatory adjustments, climate change is likely to increase their frequency and intensity. This study aims to assess the possible impact of climate change on the initiation of forest fires in Las Tunas, The purpose of this study was to assess the possible impact of the climate change in forest fires initiation in Las Tunas, which is a most deforested region in Cuba thus a vulnerable region to aridity, drought and prone to forest fires. Taking into account the characteristics of the meteorological variables, the aridity conditions and the behavior of forest fires, a long-term risk index was used. It allows determining by months the areas with favorable conditions for the start and development of fires. Based on the possible changes in the meteorological variables in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, this index was evaluated, which allowed obtaining the areas with the highest fire risk for the periods 2020-2049, 2050-2079 and 2080-2099. In general, in the territory of Las Tunas, there is a tendency to warmer conditions with reductions in rainfall, especially in the north coast. Besides, there is a decrease in relative humidity, which will lead to more areas affected by aridity and drought. Also, there will be larger areas with the presence of fire danger conditions for vegetation.

Keywords

• aridez, incendios forestales, las tunas, modelos climáticos regionales