Promoting low-carbon land use: from theory to practical application through exploring new methods

Abstract

Abstract Cities are main carbon emissions generators. Land use changes can not only affect terrestrial ecosystems carbon, but also anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, carbon monitoring at a spatial level is still coarse, and low-carbon land use encounters the challenge of being unable to adjust at the patch scale. This study addresses these limitations by using land-use data and various auxiliary data to explore new methods. The approach involves developing a high-resolution carbon monitoring model and investigating a patch-scale low-carbon land use model by integrating high carbon sink/source images with the Future Land Use Simulation model. Between 2000 and 2020, the results reveal an increasing trend in both carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the Shangyu district. Carbon sinks can only offset approximately 3% of the total carbon emissions. Spatially, the north exhibits net carbon emissions, while the southern region functions more as a carbon sink. A total of 14.5% of the total land area witnessed a change in land-use type, with the transfer-out of cropland constituting the largest area at 96.44 km2, accounting for 50% of the total transferred area. Land-use transfer resulted in an annual increase of 77.72 × 104 t in carbon emissions between 2000 and 2020. Through land-use structure optimisation, carbon emissions are projected to increase by only 7154 t C/year from 2000 to 2030, significantly lower than the amount between 2000 and 2020. Further low-carbon land optimisation at the patch scale can enhance the carbon sink by 129.59 t C/year. The conclusion drawn is that there is considerable potential to reduce carbon emissions through land use control. The new methods developed in our study can effectively contribute to high-resolution carbon monitoring in spatial contexts and support low-carbon land use, promoting the application of low-carbon land use from theory to practice. This will provide technological guidance for land use planning, city planning, and so forth.