International Journal of Infectious Diseases (Apr 2025)
Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaboration
- Marco Ajelli,
- Jean-Jacques Muyembe,
- Alhassane Touré,
- Abdourahamane Diallo,
- Maria Litvinova,
- Stefano Merler,
- Sabué Mulangu,
- Aminata Bagayoko,
- Aissatou Bah,
- Ibrahima Bah,
- Aissatou Barry,
- Fatoumata Barry,
- Mohamed Chérif,
- Doussou Condé,
- Alpha A. Diallo,
- Fatoumata Diallo,
- Mory Diakité,
- Kassié Doré,
- Koundouno A. Mapan,
- Thérèse Koundouno,
- Patrice K. Onivogui,
- Fassou Lamah,
- Henry Maneno,
- Alphonse Nomou,
- Kourouma Sekouba,
- Ismaila Sani,
- Abdoulaye Soumah,
- Mamadou M. Sy,
- Pierre-Stéphane Gsell,
- M. Elizabeth Halloran,
- Ana Maria Henao-Restrepo,
- Ibrahima Socé Fall,
- Mike J. Ryan,
- Peter Salama,
- Alessandro Vespignani,
- Ira M. Longini, Jr.
Affiliations
- Marco Ajelli
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, Indiana, USA
- Jean-Jacques Muyembe
- Institut National pour la Recherche Biomedicale, Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Alhassane Touré
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Abdourahamane Diallo
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Maria Litvinova
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, Indiana, USA
- Stefano Merler
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
- Sabué Mulangu
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Aminata Bagayoko
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Aissatou Bah
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Ibrahima Bah
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Aissatou Barry
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Fatoumata Barry
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Mohamed Chérif
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Doussou Condé
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Alpha A. Diallo
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Fatoumata Diallo
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Mory Diakité
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Kassié Doré
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Koundouno A. Mapan
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Thérèse Koundouno
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Patrice K. Onivogui
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Fassou Lamah
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Henry Maneno
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Alphonse Nomou
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Kourouma Sekouba
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Ismaila Sani
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Abdoulaye Soumah
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Mamadou M. Sy
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Pierre-Stéphane Gsell
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- M. Elizabeth Halloran
- Biostatistics, Bioinformatics and Epidemiology Program, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center and Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Ana Maria Henao-Restrepo
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Ibrahima Socé Fall
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Mike J. Ryan
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Peter Salama
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Alessandro Vespignani
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Ira M. Longini, Jr.
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA; Corresponding author.
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 153
p. 107779
Abstract
Objectives: Assess the effectiveness of ring vaccination in controlling an Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods: This analysis focuses on two areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Beni and Butembo/Katwa, which were affected during the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak. To simulate Ebola virus transmission, we used a spatially explicit agent-based model with households, health care facilities, and Ebola treatment units. Model parameters were calibrated using data collected under the ring-vaccination expanded-access protocol implemented during the outbreak. The model was used to estimate the impact of the deployed ring vaccination strategy, compared to what would have happened if there had been no ring vaccination. The impact of alternative vaccination strategies (mass vaccination, targeted geographic vaccination, and ring-plus) was evaluated as well. Results: Compared to a hypothetical scenario where vaccination was not implemented, ring vaccination was estimated to have averted 54.3% (SD, 32.5%) and 62.7% (SD, 23.2%) of potential cases in Beni and Butembo/Katwa, respectively. Under ring vaccination, the average number of averted cases per 1000 vaccine doses administered was 15.1 (SD, 16.8) and 27.8 (SD, 22.9), in Beni and Butembo/Katwa, respectively. In terms of number of averted cases per vaccine dose, ring vaccination was estimated to be more efficient than any of the other evaluated vaccination strategies. Conclusion: Despite some level of social instability, ring vaccination with the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine was highly effective during the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As compared to alternative vaccination strategies, ring vaccination was estimated to be the most efficient.
