Time Series Analysis and Forecasting For Air Pollution In Ankara: A Box-Jenkins Approach

Abstract

Despite the existing public and government measures for monitoring and controling of air quality in Ankara, in many regions, air quality is not satisfactory. In this paper, PM10 data obtained from Monitoring and controlling of air quality station of Environment and Urban Ministry in Ankara-Sıhhiye. PM10 is a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets suspended in the atmosphere, which is an abbreviation of particulate matter. This representation contains many pollutants, such as fossil fuels, waste and secondary aerosols, dust and smoke. PM10 leads to many health problems including asthmaand premature death.Time series analysis was implemented to the PM10 data by using Box-Jenkins Methodology and the potential future value of PM10 was forecasted consequently in the future PM10 values will be as high as the past values in Sıhhiye, Ankara.

Keywords

• arima
• air pollution
• box-jenkins
• pm10