Verifications of high-resolution regional numerical model precipitation forecast in Yunnan Province

Abstract

In order to understand the prediction effect and error characteristics of high-resolution regional numerical model precipitation prediction inYunnan Province, the precipitation prediction of Huanan, Huadong and GRAPES-Meso model from September 2017 to December 2018 was verify. The results show that Huadong model has the best overall rainfall prediction results. The amplitude of its precipitation is close to the real situation, and the accuracy rate of sunny and rain is also the highest. The empty report rate and missed report rate in Huanan and GRAPES models are generally high. The three models generally have lower scores for precipitation forecast of ≥ 0.1 mm in northeastern Yunnan, central and western Yunnan, and northwestern Yunnan, and generally higher scores in southern Fujian, southwestern Yunnan, and western Yunnan. In the northeastern part of Yunnan, the central and western parts of Yunnan, and the northwestern part of Yunnan, the TS scores of ≥ 10 mm precipitation were generally lower. For the ≥ 25 mm precipitation, the Huadong and Huanan have higher TS scores than the GRAPES model in the central and western Yunnan. For the ≥ 50 mm precipitation, there are relatively high scoring areas along the southeastern Yunnan, southwestern Yunnan, western Yunnan, and Jinshajiang river valleys. For the strong precipitation weather in Yunnan, the prediction effect of the Huanan with ≥ 0.1 mm precipitation is better, but the prediction effect of the Huadong with the magnitude of 10mm and 25 mm is better, and ≥ 50.0 mm is more reference value for the GRAPES model.

Keywords

• regional numerical model
• verification of precipitation forecast
• ts score
• yunnan province