A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

Abstract Using lightning data from the World‐Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and tracking data for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the relationship between the peak time lag (Tlag) and the wind intensity change in severe and super typhoons was investigated. The Tlag between the maximum peaks of the inner‐core lightning and the TC intensity ranged from −132 to 198 h, while that of the entire TC lightning ranged from −174 to 198 h. The median Tlag values for strengthening and weakening storms were 54 and −21 h, respectively, while those for the entire TCs were 59 and −64 h, respectively. Lightning Frequency Peaks (LFPs) occurred more often with Average Intensity Changes (AICs) than intense intensity changes. Boundary equations were established based on the previous wind intensity change versus Tlag, and Tlag was simplified as a potential forecasting parameter of TC intensity change.

Keywords

• inner core
• intensity change
• lightning frequency peak
• time lag
• tropical cyclone