APPLICATION OF THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL TO ASSESSTHE RISK OF DEATH IN ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN THE MAZOWIECKIE VOIVODESHIP

Abstract

Mortality caused by road accidents is a significant problem for most countries, including Poland, where approximately 2,900 people die each year, and another 37,359 are injured. Research in this area has been conducted on a large scale. One of the most important elements is the evaluation of factors leading to fatalities in road accidents, which is also the goal of this article. The analysis was based on data on road accidents from the Mazowieckie Voivodeship, which is characterized by one of the highest mortality rates gathered for the period 2016-2018. Owing to the dichotomous form of the studied variable, logistic regression was used. Estimated model parameters and calculated odds ratios allowed to assess theeffect of selected factors on road traffic mortality rate. As significant,the type of the perpetrator and the traffic participant, sexand age of the victim, road lighting,and the driver’s experience were selected. It was assessed that pedestrians are the group most exposed to death in a road accident, both as perpetrators and victims. It was also pointed out that the risk of death for women is 1.8 times higher than men. In addition, the effectof driving experience is also important, and the risk of death is 0.64 times lower for drivers with longer practice. It was also assessed that with each subsequent year of life,the risk of death in a road accident increased by 2%. Furthermore, according toincident site lighting, the study demonstrated that the risk of death was greatest when driving at night on an unlit road.The results obtainedmay support public safety and law enforcement authorities in carrying out preventive actionsand also can be helpful in shaping the overall strategy on road safety.

Keywords

• road safety
• logistic regression
• mortality