PLoS ONE (Jan 2015)

Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study.

  • Akiko Nanri,
  • Tohru Nakagawa,
  • Keisuke Kuwahara,
  • Shuichiro Yamamoto,
  • Toru Honda,
  • Hiroko Okazaki,
  • Akihiko Uehara,
  • Makoto Yamamoto,
  • Toshiaki Miyamoto,
  • Takeshi Kochi,
  • Masafumi Eguchi,
  • Taizo Murakami,
  • Chii Shimizu,
  • Makiko Shimizu,
  • Kentaro Tomita,
  • Satsue Nagahama,
  • Teppei Imai,
  • Akiko Nishihara,
  • Naoko Sasaki,
  • Ai Hori,
  • Nobuaki Sakamoto,
  • Chihiro Nishiura,
  • Takafumi Totsuzaki,
  • Noritada Kato,
  • Kenji Fukasawa,
  • Hu Huanhuan,
  • Shamima Akter,
  • Kayo Kurotani,
  • Isamu Kabe,
  • Tetsuya Mizoue,
  • Tomofumi Sone,
  • Seitaro Dohi,
  • Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study Group

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142779
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 10, no. 11
p. e0142779

Abstract

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Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population.Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008-2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥ 200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort.The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703-0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883-0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715-0.753) and 0.882 (0.868-0.895), respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥ 15 and invasive score of ≥ 19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years.The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c.