Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability

Mohammad Hadi Bordbar; Matthew H. England; Alex Sen Gupta; Agus Santoso; Andréa S. Taschetto; Thomas Martin; Wonsun Park; Mojib Latif

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09761-2

Nature Communications (Apr 2019)

Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability

Mohammad Hadi Bordbar,
Matthew H. England,
Alex Sen Gupta,
Agus Santoso,
Andréa S. Taschetto,
Thomas Martin,
Wonsun Park,
Mojib Latif

Affiliations

Mohammad Hadi Bordbar: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Matthew H. England: Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales
Alex Sen Gupta: Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales
Agus Santoso: Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales
Andréa S. Taschetto: Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales
Thomas Martin: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wonsun Park: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Mojib Latif: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09761-2
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 10, no. 1
pp. 1 – 10

Abstract

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Large uncertainty exists in projecting future 20-year global warming trends due to intrinsic tropical Pacific climate variability. Here the authors show that knowledge of the state of the Pacific Ocean can significantly reduce this uncertainty via the use of initialized decadal climate forecasts.

Published in Nature Communications

ISSN: 2041-1723 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

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