The Effect of Climate Change on Sorghum's Yield in the Abhar Plain

Abstract

Temperature is one of the factors affecting plant growth. Hence, in this paper, future temperature trends in Abhar region affected by climate change during future periods was evaluated and compared with the period of observation. Plant yield in the future and different cultivation periods was later simulated and estimated through AquaCrop simulation model of plant yield. The study observation period was considered as 1986-2010 AD, near horizon 2011-2045, the average horizon 2046-2079 and 2080-2100 horizon in the current study. LARS-WG software was used in HadCM3 model and A2 scenario in order to downscale the results of general atmosphere circulation's simulation model. Furthermore, the scenario file was generated in this study. According to the results obtained, the highest yield wil be cultivated on May 26 with 46.29 tons per hectare and the lowest yield will be produced on June 5 with 40.6 tons per hectare. If we change the traditional cultivation time from May 15 to May 26, a growth of 0.28 tons per hectare will be expected. The highest yield will be on May 15 in the future. Moreover, the sorghum's yield will decrease. Lesser photosynthesis during the shorter growing season and C4 photosynthetic system of this product could be involved in this yield loss.

Keywords

• aquacrop
• climate change
• abhar plain
• air temperature
• yield