Long-term forecasting for growth of electricity load based on customer sectors

Abstract

The availability of electrical energy is an important issue. Along with the growth of the human population, electrical energy also increases. This study addresses problems in the operation of the electric power system. One of the problems that occur is the power imbalance due to scale growth between demand and generation. Alternative countermeasures that can be done are to prepare for the possibility that will occur in the future or what we are familiar with forecasting. Forecasting using the multiple linear regression method with this research variable assumes the household sector, business, industry, and public sectors, and is considered by the influence of population, gross regional domestic product, and District Minimum Wage. In forecasting, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). MAPE evaluation results show a value of 0.142 % in the household sector, 0.085 % in the business sector, 1.983 % in the industrial sector, and 0.131 % in the total customer sector.

Keywords

• district minimum wage
• gross regional domestic product
• long-term forecasting
• mean absolute percentage error
• multiple linear regression.