Model-based risk assessment of dengue fever transmission in Xiamen City, China

Zhinan Guo; Weikang Liu; Xingchun Liu; Buasiyamu Abudunaibi; Li Luo; Sihan Wu; Bin Deng; Tianlong Yang; Jiefeng Huang; Shenggen Wu; Lei Lei; Zeyu Zhao; Zhuoyang Li; Peihua Li; Chan Liu; Meirong Zhan; Tianmu Chen

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1079877

Frontiers in Public Health (Feb 2023)

Model-based risk assessment of dengue fever transmission in Xiamen City, China

Zhinan Guo,
Weikang Liu,
Xingchun Liu,
Buasiyamu Abudunaibi,
Li Luo,
Sihan Wu,
Bin Deng,
Tianlong Yang,
Jiefeng Huang,
Shenggen Wu,
Lei Lei,
Zeyu Zhao,
Zhuoyang Li,
Peihua Li,
Chan Liu,
Meirong Zhan,
Tianmu Chen

Affiliations

Zhinan Guo: Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Weikang Liu: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Xingchun Liu: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Buasiyamu Abudunaibi: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Li Luo: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Sihan Wu: Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Bin Deng: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Tianlong Yang: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Jiefeng Huang: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Shenggen Wu: Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
Lei Lei: Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Zeyu Zhao: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Zhuoyang Li: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Peihua Li: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Chan Liu: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China
Meirong Zhan: Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
Tianmu Chen: State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1079877
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 11

Abstract

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BackgroundQuantitative assessment of the risk of local transmission from imported dengue cases makes a great challenge to the development of public health in China. The purpose of this study is to observe the risk of mosquito-borne transmission in Xiamen City through ecological and insecticide resistance monitoring. Quantitative evaluation of mosquito insecticide resistance, community population and the number of imported cases affecting the transmission of dengue fever (DF) in Xiamen was carried out based on transmission dynamics model, so as to reveal the correlation between key risk factors and DF transmission.MethodsBased on the dynamics model and combined with the epidemiological characteristics of DF in Xiamen City, a transmission dynamics model was built to simulate the secondary cases caused by imported cases to evaluate the transmission risk of DF, and to explore the influence of mosquito insecticide resistance, community population and imported cases on the epidemic situation of DF in Xiamen City.ResultsFor the transmission model of DF, when the community population is between 10,000 and 25,000, changing the number of imported DF cases and the mortality rate of mosquitoes will have an impact on the spread of indigenous DF cases, however, changing the birth rate of mosquitoes did not gain more effect on the spread of local DF transmission.ConclusionsThrough the quantitative evaluation of the model, this study determined that the mosquito resistance index has an important influence on the local transmission of dengue fever caused by imported cases in Xiamen, and the Brayton index can also affect the local transmission of the disease.

Published in Frontiers in Public Health

ISSN: 2296-2565 (Online)
Publisher: Frontiers Media S.A.
Country of publisher: Switzerland
LCC subjects: Medicine: Public aspects of medicine
Website: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health

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