Modeling potential distribution of newly recorded ant, Brachyponera nigrita using Maxent under climate change in Pothwar region, Pakistan.

Abstract

Climate change has been discussed as to exert shifts in geographical range of plants, animals or insect species by increasing, reducing or shifting its appropriate climatic habitat. Globally, Pakistan has been ranked at 5th position on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change in 2020. Climate change has resulted in the losses of biodiversity and alteration in ecosystem as a result of depletion of natural habitats of species in Pakistan as well as in the world. Ants have been regarded as indicators of environmental change and ecosystem processes. Brachyponera nigrita (Emery, 1895) was reported for the first time from Pakistan (Pothwar region). Objective of our studies was to model geographic distribution of newly recorded ant species, B. nigrita based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050s using maximum entropy model (Maxent) in Pakistan. In modeling procedure, 21occurrence records and 8 variables namely Bio4 (Temperature seasonality), Bio8 (Mean temperature of wettest quarter), Bio10 (Mean temperature of warmest quarter), Bio12 (Annual precipitation), Bio13 (Precipitation of wettest month), Bio15 (Precipitation seasonality), Bio17 (Precipitation of driest quarter) and Bio18 (Precipitation of warmest quarter) were used to determine the current and future distributions. Performance of the model was evaluated using AUC (area under curves) values, partial ROC, omission rates (E = 5%) and AICc (Model complexity).The results showed the average AUC value of the model was 0.930, which indicated that the accuracy of the model was excellent. The jackknife test also showed that Bio4, Bio18, Bio17 and Bio15 contributed 98% for the prediction of potential distribution of the species as compared to all other variables. Maxent results indicated that distribution area of B. nigrita under future predicted bioclimatics 2050 (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) would be increased in various localities of Pakistan as compared to its current distribution. In Pothwar region, moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of this species would increase by 505.932321km2and 572.118421km2as compared to current distribution under 2050 (RCP 4.5), while under 2050 (RCP 8.5), there would be an increase of 6427.2576km2and 3765.140493km2 respectively in moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of B. nigrita. This species was associated with termites, collembolans and larval stages of different insects. White eggs, creamy white pupae and many workers of this species were observed in a variety of habitats. Unknown nesting ecology, species identification characters supported with micrographs has been given which will help researchers for further ecological studies.