Changes in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer future

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology offers a promising path for addressing energy demand and mitigating climate change. However, climatic conditions relevant to the productivity of solar power may be changed in a warmer future. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on PV potential over China based on high-resolution climate projections within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Our results indicate that the annual mean PV power potential ( PV _POT ) over China would decrease by several percent relative to the reference period (1986–2005) under a warmer climate, with the most pronounced decrease over the Tibetan Plateau, which is currently the most solar-rich region in China. However, beyond changes in the mean climate state, we demonstrate a substantial increase in events of extreme low PV power outputs (i.e. those falling below the 10th percentile of the probability distribution of the daily PV _POT anomalies). For instance, the frequency of extreme low PV events is projected to reach nearly three times the reference period level over the Tibetan Plateau under the scenario of 3 °C global warming (similar to late-century warming projected based on current mitigation policies). Future changes in PV _POT are dominated by changes in surface solar irradiance, while the warming condition further exacerbates the decrease in PV _POT . Our results highlight that both the mean and extreme conditions of solar inputs should be considered simultaneously when assessing the impacts of climate change on PV power outputs.

Keywords

• solar energy
• photovoltaic
• climate change
• renewable energy
• CORDEX
• carbon neutral