Analytical Method for Hitting Probability of Supercavity Torpedoes

Abstract

Formulating an analytical model for the hitting probability of supercavity torpedoes is an effective approach to clarify the influence of errors in the attack process. This study establishes a distribution model of the torpedo miss distance during the straight attack of supercavity torpedoes by considering the influence of platform detection and torpedo navigation errors. Simultaneously, considering the influence of the target waterline on the hitting probability, the hitting range model of a target is established, and based on theoretical analysis, this paper proposes unifying the target navigation and platform detection errors, which can ensure the calculation accuracy and effectively avoid modeling difficulties caused by the two-dimensional distribution of the target location. Based on this, an analytical model for the hitting probability of a supercavity torpedo is established, and the computational accuracy of the analytical model is verified by comparing it with a statistical method. A sensitivity analysis is conducted, and the results clarify that the errors with the greatest impact on the hitting probability are the detection errors of the initial line of a sight angle and the torpedo course errors, providing a reference for improving the operational effectiveness of supercavity torpedoes.

Keywords

• supercavity torpedo
• hitting probability
• analytical method
• error sensitivity