Computational Ecology and Software (Jun 2023)
A comprehensive risk assessment system for probabilistic problems
Abstract
In present study we provided a comprehensive risk assessment system. The system consists of four representative methods, namely probability-deterministic assessment, probability-interval assessment, probability-ranking assessment, and probability-ranking with optimal mix strategy. Among them, the probability-interval assessment was proposed by us. In the risk assessment, there are multiple available states, but only one of them can occur in nature. The occurrence probability of each state is the determined value and interval respectively for the first two methods; and for the latter two methods it is the probability difference of each pair of adjacent states. Known the benefit matrix, plans ranking can be derived from the first three methods according to the expected benefit; the fourth method can be used to obtain the optimal mix proportion of plans. The Matlab full code of the assessment system was given for further application and improvement.
